The aging of Japan is thought to outweigh all other
nations, as the country is purported to have the highest proportion of elderly citizens. Not just in rural, but also in urban areas, Japan is
experiencing a “super-aging” society. According to 2014 estimates, 33.0% of the
Japanese population is above the age of 60, 25.9% are aged 65 or above, 12.5%
are aged 75 or above. People aged 65 and older in Japan make up a quarter of
its total population, estimated to reach a third by the year 2050.
Japan had a postwar baby boom between 1947 and 1949. However,
the law of 1948 led to easy access to abortions, followed by a prolonged period
of low fertility, resulting in the aging population of Japan. The dramatic
aging of Japanese society as a result of sub-replacement fertility rates and high life expectancy is expected to continue, and the
population began to decline in 2011. Japanese citizens view Japan
as comfortable and modern, resulting in no sense of a population crisis. The government of Japan has responded to concerns about
the stress that demographic changes place on the economy and social services with policies intended to restore the fertility rate and make
the elderly more active in society.
Aging dynamics
The number of Japanese people with ages 65 years or older
nearly quadrupled in the last forty years, to 33 million in 2014, accounting
for 26% of Japan's population. In the same period, the number of children (aged
14 and younger) decreased from 24.3% of the population in 1975 to 12.8% in
2014. The number of elderly people surpassed the number of children in 1997,
and sales of adult diapers surpassed diapers for babies in 2014. This change in
the demographic makeup of Japanese society, referred to as population aging, has taken place in a shorter span
of time than in any other country.
According to projections of the
population with the current fertility rate, over 65s will account for 40%
of the population by 2060, and the total population will fall by a third from
128 million in 2010 to 87 million in 2060. Economists at Tohoku University established a countdown to national extinction, which estimates
that Japan will have only one remaining child in 4205. These predictions
prompted a pledge by Prime Minister Shinzō Abe to halt population decline at 100 million.
Causes
The aging of the Japanese
population is a result of one of the world's lowest fertility rates combined with the highest life expectancy.
High life expectancy
The reason for Japan’s growing
aging population is because of high life expectancy; Japan's life expectancy in
2016 was 85 years, similar to that of Singapore, and lower only than that of
Monaco. The life expectancy is 81.7 for males and 88.5 for females. Since Japan’s overall population
is shrinking due to low fertility rates, the aging population is rapidly
increasing. Factors such as improved nutrition, advanced medical and
pharmacological technologies reduced the prevalence of diseases, improving
living conditions. Also peace and prosperity post-World War II contributed to
economic growth, leading to long life. Proportion of health care spending has
dramatically increased as Japan’s older population spends time in hospitals and
visits physicians. 2.9% people aged 75–79 were in hospital and 13.4% visited
physicians on a given day in 2011.
Life expectancy at birth has
increased rapidly from the end of World War II, when the average was 54 years for women and 50 for men,
as a result of improvements in medicine and nutrition, and the percentage of
the population aged 65 years and older has increased steadily from the
1950s. The advancement of life expectancy translated into a depressed mortality
rate until the 1980s, but mortality has increased again to 10.1 per 1000 people
in 2013, the highest since 1950.
Low fertility rate
Japan's total fertility rate (the number of children born by each woman in her lifetime) has
been below the replacement threshold of 2.1 since 1974 and reached a historic
low of 1.26 in 2005. Experts believe that signs of a slight recovery reflect
the expiration of a "tempo effect," as fertility rates accommodate a major shift in the
timing and number of children, rather than any positive change. As of 2016, the
TFR was 1.41 children born/woman.
A range of economic and cultural
factors contributed to the decline in childbirth during the late 20th century:
later and fewer marriages, higher education, urbanization, increase in nuclear family households (rather than extended family), poor work–life balance, increased participation of women in the workforce, a decline in wages and lifetime employment along with a high gender pay gap, small living spaces, and the high cost of raising a child.
Many young people face economic
insecurity due to a lack of regular employment. About 40% of Japan's labor
force is non-regular, including part-time and temporary workers. Non-regular employees earn about 53 percent less than regular
ones on a comparable monthly basis, according to the Labor Ministry. Young men in this group are less likely to consider marriage
or to be married.
Although most married couples
have two or more children, a growing number of young people postpone or
entirely reject marriage and parenthood. Conservative gender roles often mean that women are expected to stay home with the
children, rather than work. Between 1980 and 2010, the percentage of the
population who had never married increased from 22% to almost 30%, even as the
population continued to age,
and by 2035 one in four people
will not marry during their childbearing years. The Japanese sociologist Masahiro Yamada coined the term parasite singles for unmarried adults in their late 20s and 30s who continue to
live with their parents.
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