Bab-el-Mandeb area (Photo: NASA)
Sunnis – Farsi - Jew and Greed in MidEast
“It is a wave of tension that does little for regional stability
though I can’t say we are anticipating any dramatic military metamorphosis
because it is not just about the safety of the Red Sea but also about the
interests of a great many powers that depend on the security and stability of
this strategic maritime route,” said the anonymous source.
He was speaking hours before US President Donald Trump’s
announcement he was willing to meet up with “anyone”, including President of
Iran Hassan Rouhani, without preconditions, to consider a possible deal with
Iran.
“I’d meet with anybody. I believe in meetings,” the US president
told reporters at the White House.
Later on same day, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo confirmed
Trump’s willingness to seek a high-level meeting with Iranian leaders to strike
a possible deal but said that it was neither an invitation nor an unqualified
offer.
“It is not clear what the Americans have in mind. Is this just
another unpredictable statement from Trump that has had to be qualified by the
US foreign service or is it something substantial, like Trump’s North Korean
endeavour? The only thing that is clear is that there has been serious European
pressure on
Washington to slow down its escalation with Iran for fear of serious regional complications,” said a Washington-based European diplomat.
Washington to slow down its escalation with Iran for fear of serious regional complications,” said a Washington-based European diplomat.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and the UAE — leading members of the Riyadh-led alliance to restore legitimacy in Yemen — have been intensifying their strikes against the rebel-held port of Hodeida.
On Monday, UN humanitarian coordinator Lisa Grande warned that
Hodeida was one more strike away from a humanitarian catastrophe.
A source in the UN Yemen mission, who spoke to the Weekly on
condition of anonymity, said on Monday that the “heavy and non-stop strikes of
the Saudis and the Emiratis were complicating the situation and making it
impossible for” UN Envoy to Yemen Martin Griffiths to pursue a political
settlement to the four year-old conflict.
“He had made some progress against overwhelming odds, not least
the positions adopted by most regional powers who do not want to upset Saudi
Arabia — and now this,” said the source at the UN mission.
Speaking in Cairo, hours before the Trump statement, Baligh
Mekhlaf, a member of the Yemeni diplomatic mission that represents the
Saudi/UAE backed Yemeni regime of President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi, said that
“the Houthis do not want a political settlement — they are just trying to buy
time.”
According to Mekhlaf, the Houthis “should be faced with a firm
military approach, especially since they have no legitimate grievances”.
“They are just a cat’s paw for the Iranians, and obviously
Tehran is upset about its confrontation with the US.”
Prior to his dramatic Monday statements Trump, who had already unilaterally pulled out of the 5+1 nuclear deal with Iran, warned Tehran it would face tough times if it continued to defy US interests.
Foreign diplomatic sources say both Saudi Arabia and Israel are
only too pleased to see Iran coming under so much US pressure, especially the
expected US ban on all Iranian oil exports.
Egypt, long time sworn enemy of Iran like Saudi, closely allied
with Riyadh, is currently hosting senior Yemeni figures, including associates
of the son of the late Ali Abdallah Saleh, Yemen’s ousted president. But Cairo
is far from seeking a political fight with Iran.
Diplomats worry about escalating any confrontation with Iran,
which would have ramifications in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, where Tehran wields
considerable influence, and also on the situation around the Red Sea.
Cairo, which is member of the Saudi-led alliance but has
declined to contribute any ground troops for operations in Yemen despite heavy
pressure from Riyadh
Egyptian diplomatic missions have been closely following Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s communications with Eritrea and Djibouti.
They have also been monitoring the messaging between Riyadh and
Abu Dhabi, on the one hand, and Addis Ababa on the other.
A keen eye is being kept on the interaction of all international
players with a direct military presence overlooking Bab Al-Mandab, and on
Israel.
“Saudi Arabia and the UAE are endeavouring to reduce the Iranian
presence in Dijbouti and Somalia/Somaliland. This is about the management of
the situation in Yemen but also about the economic interests of Saudi Arabia
and the UAE across the Red Sea,”
The recent rapprochement between Asmara and Addis Ababa, argues
Abdel-Halim, means Cairo has also to keep a close eye on this front, especially
that this week Ethiopia began operating two land lines to Eritrean ports on the
Red Sea.
Foreign diplomats say Ethiopia’s new Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed
has already hinted at a new regional security arrangement to monitor the Red
Sea.
Concerned Egyptian officials refer to “legitimate security questions” facing East African states. Ethiopia has faced two major security challenges in just one week — the first the assassination of the director of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, the second the arrest of a group of armed men near the airport in Addis Ababa.
A major foreign military presence already exists in the area.
The Americans have a large base in Djibouti and a number of European states
maintain a military presence around Somalia to combat piracy.
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